The Gold at the end of In Rainbows

So Radiohead did their thing, released In Rainbows, and the internet temporarily went mad for it. Now everybody has their download, what now?

While I am sure that the experiment can be considered a success, I wonder if it would ever be possible to replicate or if any future similar stunts would just be considered rip-offs. Apparently 1.3 million people downloaded the album in the first few days, a third of which didn't pay anything at all for it, and with an average price of about £4. That's a lot of people paying over the odds for something they didn't have to pay for at all. Reports are that some people paid over £20 for 160Kb/s MP3s!

So why did people pay so much? Well, there's good old fashioned honesty, I guess. If you're paying on an honour system, some people will pay because it makes them feel better, or helps promote this sort of thing, or whatever. This is all well and good, but what about paying more for something under an honour system than if you have to pay for it?

In this case, I think there are a couple of factors. First, there's novelty. People will pay through the nose for novelty. Being the first, or at least on the bandwagon for the first, of something is exciting to people and worth a small premium. Sadly that boat has now sailed. The novelty has been and gone.

Second, there is the slightly more philosophical view that it is helping support and culture a music industry in which the customer is more in control of the value of music. Unfortunately it's a little bit of a shot in the foot. If future attempts to use this model are to succeed, then the same number of people need to pay over the odds to counter the people who pay nothing to make it worthwhile. This might happen for the next album, or the one after, but think ahead 2 years. Will people still be wanting to pay double the price of a CD for relatively low quality MP3s after 20 such albums? No, they won't, so the average will steadily drop toward zero.

I think there is room for a model such as this, and I think doing an experiment like this can help set certain precedents. Taking into account novelty and philosophical payments, it seems people would be happy to pay about £3 for a medium quality, DRM free downloadable album. This is about half the current going rate on iTunes for DRM encumbered files, and about one third the cost of DRM free.

Of course, aside from the cheap-as-you-like download version, there is the super-box-set of In Rainbows which includes CDs, LPs and all sorts of goodies at a whopping £40. This is the premium package and many people have bought it. So we have two distinct price points; low quality instant access for £3, and high quality special edition for £40.

So, what then? If these two options are viable, and CDs still cost about a tenner, why not just have the three available:

  • Quicky download version: £3
  • CD quality download or actual CD: £10
  • Special edition box set: £30
  • Making a little something from each possible price point: £priceless

And the album itself? It's not bad. Might take a couple more listens ...